Thoughts for the rest of June
Taking a look at what to except in june, i will first go to the modelling. CFS has cool pool in the Great Lakes region with ridging in the southwest and along the west coast. Normal south and east.
GFS ensembles are showing a big trough in the east until about hours 204 when the ridge starts to move eastwards into the east. It is not showing a strong ridge at the moment but since the PNA is expected to go negative at that point I expect the trough to dig deeper in the west and the ridge to be stronger in the east. How long this sticks around is still to be determined but it looks like the week from june 11th to the end of june look warmer if not really warm in the east.
GFS upper height anomalies:
Larger ridge being backed up by negative PNA during the period:
Reduced: 85% of original size [ 600 x 800 ] - Click to view full image
Brett Anderson's interpretation of the Euro weeklies is showing this too:
Reduced: 86% of original size [ 590 x 375 ] - Click to view full image
Reduced: 86% of original size [ 590 x 375 ] - Click to view full image
Reduced: 86% of original size [ 590 x 375 ] - Click to view full image
Euro ensembles has the ridge:
Canadian has trough in the west but will probably amplify the ridge more in the East over time:
NAEFS departures 10th-17th:
It appears as though ridging will be returning with above normal departures in the east for the second half of june after the much below normal departures experiencing now. Now I will take a look at some of the closest years chosen by the CPC:
2001 and 2006 are two years that I like the best and think that they are most similar to our current pattern.
2001 shows ridging in the southwest and a trough in the middle of the nation with a very cold BC. The deserts are very hot this year, B.C looks to end up very cold and the east slightly warm. There are clearly some similarities here.
Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 437 ] - Click to view full image
2006 has ridge in the west and warm anomalies across the north with a weakness off the east coast. Possibly could end up close to 06 in the East if departures get low enough in the next week as the trough continues to dig off the coast. I have used 06 as an analog several times this year, showing many similarities. I believe that the trough will hang on until about the 13th due to a typhoon making its way near Japan 6-10 days earlier and promoting more of a trough in east asia, off the west coast and into the east. This will occur before letting a big ridge build back into the great lakes for the end of the month. This is in line with my summer forecast which I am expecting more frequent cold shots as we progress later into the summer and the El Nino comes on. I still expect June to be slightly above normal for the east.
Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 437 ] - Click to view full image
GFS ensembles are showing a big trough in the east until about hours 204 when the ridge starts to move eastwards into the east. It is not showing a strong ridge at the moment but since the PNA is expected to go negative at that point I expect the trough to dig deeper in the west and the ridge to be stronger in the east. How long this sticks around is still to be determined but it looks like the week from june 11th to the end of june look warmer if not really warm in the east.
GFS upper height anomalies:
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1024 x 819 (87.1K)
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Larger ridge being backed up by negative PNA during the period:
Reduced: 85% of original size [ 600 x 800 ] - Click to view full imageBrett Anderson's interpretation of the Euro weeklies is showing this too:
Reduced: 86% of original size [ 590 x 375 ] - Click to view full image Reduced: 86% of original size [ 590 x 375 ] - Click to view full image Reduced: 86% of original size [ 590 x 375 ] - Click to view full imageEuro ensembles has the ridge:
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Canadian has trough in the west but will probably amplify the ridge more in the East over time:
Reduced 23%
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NAEFS departures 10th-17th:
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699 x 770 (55.52K)
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It appears as though ridging will be returning with above normal departures in the east for the second half of june after the much below normal departures experiencing now. Now I will take a look at some of the closest years chosen by the CPC:
Reduced 11%
715 x 715 (42.76K)
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2001 and 2006 are two years that I like the best and think that they are most similar to our current pattern.
2001 shows ridging in the southwest and a trough in the middle of the nation with a very cold BC. The deserts are very hot this year, B.C looks to end up very cold and the east slightly warm. There are clearly some similarities here.
Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 437 ] - Click to view full image2006 has ridge in the west and warm anomalies across the north with a weakness off the east coast. Possibly could end up close to 06 in the East if departures get low enough in the next week as the trough continues to dig off the coast. I have used 06 as an analog several times this year, showing many similarities. I believe that the trough will hang on until about the 13th due to a typhoon making its way near Japan 6-10 days earlier and promoting more of a trough in east asia, off the west coast and into the east. This will occur before letting a big ridge build back into the great lakes for the end of the month. This is in line with my summer forecast which I am expecting more frequent cold shots as we progress later into the summer and the El Nino comes on. I still expect June to be slightly above normal for the east.
Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 437 ] - Click to view full image
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