Major Storm To End Off The Month

It looks like this an interesting time period will be coming up between the 27th and 29th. The polar jet may be able to phase with the pacific and the sub tropical jets as the AO goes negative in this time period and more arctic air gets involved into the pattern. The arctic jet will begin to creep southwards as well while the AO goes negative. The last several model runs of the GFS are showing this storm. The timing/potential of a phase and where this storm ends up is still very uncertain. Right now it looks like an apps runner, inland cutter or nor'easter is favourable and not a track up to the western great lakes.

18z GFS at hour 312 and 324:

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Looks like an interesting track in that it propagates northwards to the eastern lakes and picks up a lot of gulf moisture on the way. It will probably trend west with time as that is usually what happens as we get closer to the event but we will see another 20 different solutions before all is said and done.

200mb Charts at 312 show how the subtropical jet is feeding moisture into the system. On this run there is limited interaction with the polar jet but model guidance will obviously change many more times.

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H5 Map:

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