My latest Maps on the storm shift the axis of heavy snow further southeast:
Wind Analysis:
I am going with a mix of the european and the GFS, although I favour an ECM solution more. I think the phase will come earlier allowing more cold air to get pulled in further south across PA, MD and new york. I think some sleet may mix in with rain in the NW suburbs of NYC but no major snow concerns. Rain and wind will be the biggest issue in NYC and New Jersey with gusts up to 55kts inland and 70kts along the immediate coastline. The heaviest snow axis may be centred northeast of DC but a 2-5" event is not out of the question in the city. This low will really get cranking over the gulf stream, my lowest pressure might be a bit lower then most modelling but we will see what this storm can do. Our pattern is favouring extremes right now so I wouldn't be surprised if some people are caught off guard with how much snow comes down. Models were underestimating the cold air up until last night but are beginning to catch on. Waves and surge may be a big concern as well with up to 15ft waves along the unprotected coast. We may see an extra 2-3" storm surge on top of high tide which will be coming at 2:10 AM thursday at the height of the storm.
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Wind Analysis:
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I am going with a mix of the european and the GFS, although I favour an ECM solution more. I think the phase will come earlier allowing more cold air to get pulled in further south across PA, MD and new york. I think some sleet may mix in with rain in the NW suburbs of NYC but no major snow concerns. Rain and wind will be the biggest issue in NYC and New Jersey with gusts up to 55kts inland and 70kts along the immediate coastline. The heaviest snow axis may be centred northeast of DC but a 2-5" event is not out of the question in the city. This low will really get cranking over the gulf stream, my lowest pressure might be a bit lower then most modelling but we will see what this storm can do. Our pattern is favouring extremes right now so I wouldn't be surprised if some people are caught off guard with how much snow comes down. Models were underestimating the cold air up until last night but are beginning to catch on. Waves and surge may be a big concern as well with up to 15ft waves along the unprotected coast. We may see an extra 2-3" storm surge on top of high tide which will be coming at 2:10 AM thursday at the height of the storm.
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