Although ENSO conditions have been warming recently, signs pointing towards an SST setup edging more towards cool neutral conditions as we head into october. Easterlies continue to dominate much of the tropical pacific basin with a decrease in cloudiness as well, indicative of strengthening cool SST's.
SOI values continue to oscillate with bursts of negative and positive numbers, although biased well positive in the 30 and 90 day means. At the subsurface, we are seeing a fairly strong cool anomaly below a patch of warmth responsible for the recent ENSO warming and -MSLP burst over the tropical pacific.
MSLP from sept 15-25:
SST change since july 25th:
Subsurface anomalies support gradual cooling... but we will see what happens.
Cool neutral years per the DJF ONI index with a westerly shear phase of the QBO look like this in winter.
H5 look when isolated for -PDO years only.