Friday 27 September 2013

ENSO Conditions Swaying Towards Cool Biased Neutral

Although ENSO conditions have been warming recently, signs pointing towards an SST setup edging more towards cool neutral conditions as we head into october. Easterlies continue to dominate much of the tropical pacific basin with a decrease in cloudiness as well, indicative of strengthening cool SST's.
Attached Image

Cloudiness:
Attached Image

SOI values continue to oscillate with bursts of negative and positive numbers, although biased well positive in the 30 and 90 day means. At the subsurface, we are seeing a fairly strong cool anomaly below a patch of warmth responsible for the recent ENSO warming and -MSLP burst over the tropical pacific.

MSLP from sept 15-25:
 Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 436 ] - Click to view full image
Attached Image

SST change since july 25th:
 Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 436 ] - Click to view full image
Attached Image

Subsurface anomalies support gradual cooling... but we will see what happens.
Attached Image
Cool neutral years per the DJF ONI index with a westerly shear phase of the QBO look like this in winter.
 Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 436 ] - Click to view full image
Attached Image

H5 look when isolated for -PDO years only.
 Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 436 ] - Click to view full image
Attached Image 

No comments:

Post a Comment