Surge of warmth was caused by a Kelvin wave that passed through the west pacific in the first few days of september allowing SOI values to drop significantly.
Euro and NMME suite staying in the el nino or at least warm biased neutral camp and have been pretty consistent for several runs now. With this type of SST profile, positioning will be critical as a basin wide or east based warm event does not produce the goods in the east.
Euro SST profile not ideal with core of warmth near 120W.
In coldest el nino years we notice the core of warmth west of 130w. For example, 1963 in december was very cold in the east and had that type of setup.
In 2002 and 1957 we have a basin wide nino in december and a very warm month across much of NA with the exception of the SE in 2002.
Positioning of warm sea surface temperatures will be key... but could bear fruit if we see a favourable setup.