Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Cold Coming, La Nina possible this spring?

Record warming in the stratosphere should deliver a healthy cold shot around the 20th of january:
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MJO signal favours a southeast ridge and further NW inland storm track with a trough along the california coast.
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After the initial shot of arctic air we may see the pattern move to a very stormy one for ontario and quebec with a more la nina like look for the last few days of january and first half of february. The LRC supports several storms in this time period. The Pacific SST's resemble a weak east based la nina look which favours cold in the great lakes and northern plains. It looks like their will be some warming in western regions as subsurface warmth upwells.
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GLAAM is moving into a weak phase 4/5 which favours a la nina type of pattern. Frictional torque values are negative between 30 and 60 north. With the MJO stalling in phases 6 and 7 the SOI will pop positive with pressure falls near darwin and a HP anomaly further east. Trade winds are present in the equatorial pacific will LP anomalies propagating eastwards across the northern pacific which will strengthen the la nina that may come on this spring. Right now a la nada biased cool looks present.
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8-10 day means look la nina like:

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