Monday, 14 January 2013

Early February Looks Stormy

AAM has moved into the negative territory with a very negative anomaly centred near 30N. This favours higher heights near alaska and a continuation of a negative EPO pattern. The 12z ECMENS EPO forecasts confirm this up until the 20th of the month. The -EPO signal is caused by the poleward movement of warm tropical air to higher latitudes.
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Mountain torque values have been on the rise but i believe the SSW has peaked and will begin to tone down at 10 and 30mb as we are seeing negative torque values showing up near 30N. Equatorward movement of frictional torque values favours a stormier pattern across the north pacific in the next two weeks with several systems moving along in the flow. A rossby wave train pattern has set up across the pacific.
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As a result a much stormier pattern will take place across the eastern and central part of the u.s between february 1st and 15th. Eastward propagation of the MJO in the southwest pacific will lose amplitude as it moves into phase 7 which looks very likely in the next 5 days. Major disagreements showing up between the ECMF, GEFS and the UKMET ENS MJO forecasts. I like a blend of the 3 but not quite as amped up as the GEFS and UKME. It does look like the MJO will lost amplitude in phases 7 or 8 which means that the GWO, SSW and pacific pattern will have more significant roles in the weather pattern for the end of jan and beginning of february. Eastward MJO progress should allow a kelvin wave to form around the date line as pressures rise across the maritime continent. Currently, easterlies are dominating across the equatorial pacific but a WWB in the western regions will cause a more nino like pacific pattern to set up. The current GWO phase is trending in that direction with a weak phase 5 setup. SST's can rebound in nino 3 and 4 with a brief SOI drop and a more active STJ for early february.
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