Observations Point Towards Pattern Change Despite Temporary Warmth
Convection is beginning to redevelop around the date line this morning which is a good sign and means that the MJO is beginning to transition into more favourable phases 7 through 1. Right now most of the convection is across the indian ocean or in phases 2 through 5 of the MJO. Redevelopment of convection around 180 west will force a strong trough in the bering sea and a large thermal gradient between cold arctic air and warm tropical air. This thermal gradient will cause more storminess in the bering sea and will amplify the MJO wave as it propagates around the COD. A more active STJ will then become established with a PV dropping south from Stratospheric warming influences. This spells trouble for storminess across the eastern great lakes and interior northeast with very cold air across the prairies, west and northern plains. Notice the convection redeveloping around 180 west with negative OLR anomalies present
The 8 to 10 day forecast from the GFS and ECM show the SE ridge and SW troughiness common in phases 2 through 5 of the MJO.