Sunday, 27 January 2013

February Looks Cold With Analog Year Support

The upcoming period of weather from february first to the 20th looks very interesting. The cold will come first and looks like it will lock in until the 9th-12th of february. Blocking should set up towards the end of the period which will allow the arctic air mass to linger across eastern canada. I expect the lowest departures to be across the western great lakes, northern ontario, eastern ontario, new england and quebec. Although air masses will be cold across southern ontario, the northeast and ohio valley  some modification will take place with the warm lakes. Dryness will dominate overall with some clipper activity and LES from the northern branch reinforcing the snowpack in ontario and the upper midwest/ohio valley. After this period the MJO will begin to move into phases that favor a wetter pattern and further NW storm track, which can bring some action to eastern canada, midwest and new england in the snow department. After the 20th of february the MJO will begin to propagate into phases that favor a ridge in the eastern half of north america and this lines up with my thinking. The pattern will snap fast this year by the last few days of february or beginning of march. Now remember, although departures can be warmer then normal storminess can still be a key player for the end of feb and beginning of march. I have put emphasis on march in my spring outlook as being warmer then normal but this march will not compare to last year in terms of departures.
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In terms of analog years i have been looking closely at some years and found 2003-2004 as a good match. This year had a neutral ENSO, warm PDO and AMO. Its not so much the SST's that had a perfect match but the MJO was very similar with the same type of movement but one month earlier. These high amplitude waves are common in la nada years and we are about to see this unfold. Keep your eye on the red line which shows the january MJO wave in 2004 looking very similar to our current wave.
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This is what january looked like as a whole:
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