Thursday, 31 January 2013

MJO, Stratosphere Support Cold... GWO not so much!

Conflicting signals showing up in the long range pattern. Current GWO in phases 7/8 strongly points towards HP setup between 60 and 30N which lines up with the below normal SST's in the eastern nino regions. Easterlies have set up from 120W to the date line which will help keep the la nina in place across nino regions 1,2 and 3.
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This pattern favours mid latitude ridging and troughiness across the northern latitudes which should make it more difficult for blocking to show up west of greenland. I can see some east based -NAO blocking showing up but nothing sustained. The PNA looks to stay neutral which should keep the mean storm track west of the appalachians in february. Frictional torque values are crashing which favours a SE ridge setup in the LR especially for the second half of february and most of march.
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Before this type of pattern sets up i think we have a 2-3 week period of winter weather coming up. The MJO is propagating through favourable phases although it is weakening through phase 1. With the MJO amplifying into phases 2 and 3 a trough will be favoured over the east after february 10th. Perhaps some east based blocking will set up allowing for some storminess before the MJO heads into unfavourable phases for march. Current OLR anomalies are enhancing the STJ which should allow more energy for systems to work with.
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The stratosphere supports this type of setup with warmth propagating downwards. Easterly wind anomalies are strongest from 70-100mb. This will help support ridging in the NW and a downstream trough from feb 10-20th.
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