Friday, 1 February 2013

Long Range Thoughts

The current MJO wave is propagating through phase 8 with negative 200mb velocity anomalies near 120W. As it heads into phase 2 and 3 it will set up a wetter pattern across NA. A wetter pattern from feb 10-25th is supported by the current rossby wave train development near 120E and 30N. Propagation eastward is occurring and it should enter the eastern u.s around the 14-16th of february with a cold shot to follow. The GFS ensembles support this after some moderation from our current cold pattern. The pattern favours warmth overall with negative frictional/Mountain torque values. Areas to the NW of the BZ(Great lakes, Midwest) can cash in on some snowfall accumulations with a more active STJ and east based blocking in this period. 
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The RWT near 60E will cause yet another shortwave to move into the east from the 19th-21st.
GFS ensembles for the 15th:
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Our current Pattern favours SOI drops with cool water NW of australia and warmer water SE. Daily SOI value at -26.1 driven by the MJO with enhanced convection southwest of australia.
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Notice the higher then normal pressures north of australia. A similar pattern will continue throughout the week which supports a bit of an el nino comeback. Subsurface warmth is beginning to emerge especially in the western enso regions but the question remains if it can move up to the surface. In the long range the MJO will go towards la nina phases, enhancing easterlies and suppressing any WWB's caused by the eastward propagating KW.
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