The RWT near 60E will cause yet another shortwave to move into the east from the 19th-21st.
GFS ensembles for the 15th:
Our current Pattern favours SOI drops with cool water NW of australia and warmer water SE. Daily SOI value at -26.1 driven by the MJO with enhanced convection southwest of australia.
Notice the higher then normal pressures north of australia. A similar pattern will continue throughout the week which supports a bit of an el nino comeback. Subsurface warmth is beginning to emerge especially in the western enso regions but the question remains if it can move up to the surface. In the long range the MJO will go towards la nina phases, enhancing easterlies and suppressing any WWB's caused by the eastward propagating KW.