Monday, 4 February 2013

Indicies, Stratosphere, Tropics strongly support stormy pattern

Some interesting trends from the GWO today. We are entering phase 1 which corresponds well with the negative torque values showing up between 30 and 60N. A negative peak has been reached and a recovery will take place from the deep negative torque anomalies as the MJO propagates into phase 2. Convection is already beginning to develop in the western IO which should allow the GWO to continue propagating quickly around the COD as is the MJO.
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Notice the negative OLR anomalies propagating away from africa and redeveloping towards the IO. We are already beginning to see a response from the MT values with some positive values developing near 30 and 70N.
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A positive trend will continue to develop because of the positive temperature anomalies located at 70mb. This will continue to promote wave breaking events across east asia keeping the PV weak and unable to recover until the warming subsides. This will help prevent long lasting warm spells in the east until march.
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With a more favourable NAO and AO in the 10-20 day period blocking does look to return across greenland and the north pole. In this period I see a cold pattern nationwide as the hangover effects of the SSW and favourable MJO continue. It looks like the cold will be centred in the western lakes, northern plains and rockies as a -PNA is favoured in phases 2-4 of the GWO. Pieces of the arctic air will move eastwards at times into the GL's and northeast but a very cold pattern does not look favourable. Stormy conditions are likely across the ohio valley, great lakes and northeast with the mean trough to the west and a favourable MJO wave that wants to stall across the eastern indian ocean(phases 1-3) according to the latest OLR forecasts from roundy.
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