Sunday, 3 February 2013

February Analogs

My GWO analogs keep most of the cold air locked up in the plains and upper midwest for february with a ridge in alaska and troughiness across the northern tier. I used years with similar AAM values from december as well as similar phases, amplitude, torque and tendency.
500mb upper height anomalies for feb have a very +NAO, +AO, active SE ridge, -EPO and neutral to -PNA. I think the +NAO is overdone but the rest is in line with my thinking.
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Although departures will start off colder then normal in the east ridging will begin to form again in the 6-10 day period with a stormy/volatile pattern taking place. I don't see sustained blocking showing up in february and if so it should remain east based. A more progressive pattern will take place for the first ten days of february with a fast moving MJO. As the MJO moves into phases 2 and 3 i can see more blocking showing up across eastern greenland and an attempt at a positive PNA spike. By week four the MJO should propagate into octant 4/5. This coupled with negative frictional/mountain torque values will form a strong ridge in the east to end off february. I do think colder then normal temperatures are on the way from the 13th-20th of the month centred in the northern plains, upper midwest and great lakes. With a more active southern branch and phases 8-2 of the MJO, storminess is likely across the northeast,great lakes and ohio valley in this period. 

Here is my analog package centered on the u.s:
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