Warm November coming up for the East, Plains and Lakes?

A few very important things i'm noticing this morning that should be pretty important for the November forecast. A Poleward/weak NH Hadley Cell has developed(especially near Indonesia) and is making it very hard for trough's to amplify across the SE Asia/Japan sector all the way through D10. This is having major impacts downstream across the CONUS because it makes it tough for waves to breakdown the C NA ridge. Instead they get displaced well to the NE towards atlantic Canada and New England.

E Asian Jet Forecast:

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500mb Omega:

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This entire pattern coincides with an H5 setup that is very supportive of poleward propagating anticylones into the mid latitudes with +AAM anomalies into the subarctic(50N-70N region). This is supportive of a major spike in the AO which should occur shortly.

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Until the hadley cell returns to normal, E asian cyclogenesis will remain sparse and the NPAC jet will favour waves breaking into Bering Sea with a -PNA. This in conjuncture with classic Basin Wide nino forcing is helping amplify the GOA trough. At the same time we will see little help from the NAO region until very late Nov or December in my opinion. I do think there is a window for some chill in the 10-15 as the GWO is pretty strong right now and headed for nina like phases(we'll see if its enough to shift the C NA ridge South and East). Beyond that point it should get pretty "torchy" from the Plains to the EC(especially the further N you go) until forcing can shift into the W-C Pac to W IO sector. In other words, it looks like Nov could be less nina like and warmer then normal across the lakes/plains/NE(with the exception of extreme Northern New England and the Maritimes). It's all part of the seasonal progression that should bring us towards a cold DJFM period over the central/Eastern CONUS. Have a great day!