Couple December scenario's I want to outline this evening.
Case 1: -QBO/El Nino Years following a November Canadian Warming. If the increased polar ozone, stronger BDC and nino help keep the wave activity high enough we could see one. 4 of my analog years have this setup but we would need to see major wave breaking pretty quickly.
Case 1: -QBO/El Nino Years following a November Canadian Warming. If the increased polar ozone, stronger BDC and nino help keep the wave activity high enough we could see one. 4 of my analog years have this setup but we would need to see major wave breaking pretty quickly.
Case 2: No November CW. My analogs are hinting at a classic Nino look with a warmer then normal N and NW with cooler anoms limited to the EC/South. The S Plains look too warm however.
As we head into Jan note how both the CW years and regular analogs have a similar pattern. Jan is probably the highest confidence month for me given the likelyhood of a Major SSW by then. Note the major AO reversal in Jan(makes sense given the OPI,SAI,Nino,-QBO and moderate solar).
CW Years
Regular Analogs
Feb CW Years(Note the reversal across the plains and NW to significantly warmer). Interesting how they tend to be colder early on but the opposite as you get latter into winter.
Regular Analogs
Have a good night!
Ethan
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