Wednesday, 23 January 2013

Long Range Outlook

KW propagating eastwards between 140 and 160 east. Notice the rebounding of water temperatures along the thermocline between 120E and the date line. This water may move towards the surface causing some further warming in the western nino regions but not all that much right now. Nino regions 1, 2 and 3 continue to stay colder then normal. We can see the corresponding WWB along with the MJO wave as pressures build towards darwin and SOI drops continue through next week. The STJ is beginning to gain strength and will becomes enhanced for the first week of february.
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MJO wave looks to propagate into phase 8 and then into 1 and 2. After the relaxation in the pattern for the beginning of next week we should see a return to a deep trough centred in the great lakes/upper midwest( a little further west then our current one). A tongue of cold will extend from the prairies into eastern quebec and ottawa, montreal and toronto will feel the arctic blast yet again. Snowier conditions are likely from february 3-11 as the MJO is favourable and the STJ gets enhanced as BZ migrates northwards. Ridging should resume in the SE with more of a battle ground taking place and more average temperatures dominating after the 10th.
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Notice the further east jet stream in the pacific which corresponds with MJO phases 8-2 and promotes an aleutians trough which we are seeing. The GWO supports this as we are seeing very high EAMT values pumping a rockies ridge.
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