Wednesday, 30 January 2013

Major Lake Effect Snow Outbreak

The NAM 4km WRF looks interesting with a WNW/NW flow dominating. 
Hour 22:
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Hour 31:
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A line from bluewater through goderich, kincardine and up to owen sound will see decent snow from this outbreak. Winds will begin in a WNW to ESE direction after the passage of the cold front but they will shift to more of a NW/NNW direction as we head into late thursday night/friday morning. I think squalls off of GB are weaker then huron but squalls on thursday will target areas from midland southeast to orillia. This band will stay north of barrie for the most part but is right on the edge of the city with lighter accumulations expected in barrie/wasaga. As the winds shift the band should move through the city but for a short span of time thursday evening. On Thursday night the band should settle on the SW end of the bay allowing owen sound, meaford and collingwood to get in on some snow. Down wind of lake huron the walkerton and mount forest areas will be effected first with the WNW flow to start.  These bands will shift around a lot thursday as they move from north to south. Heaviest accumulations will set up from goderich to kincardine and NE to wingham thursday night into friday as a strengthening band settles here for several hours. I think a band of 20-30cm+ will set up across this area with white out conditions likely. This band may strengthen enough to get into the stratford, st mary's and huron east areas but it should stay mainly north of london. I think the GTA may see a few cm's from this outbreak but nothing major.

With that being said here are my accumulation forecasts across the province:
Orillia: 10-20cm
Midland: 10-20cm
Barrie: 3-10cm
Wasaga: 3-10cm
Toronto/ Hamilton:1-5cm
Owen Sound: 10-20cm
Kincardine: 15-25cm
Goderich: 15-25cm
Huron East: 15-25cm
Stratford: 5-12cm
Hanover: 5-12cm
Walkerton: 5-12cm
Colligwood: 5-12cm
Meaford: 8-15cm 

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