Severe Weather Update

0z NAM at 24 hours:

Wind Shear:

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Storm Relative Helicity at 21 hours: very high in eastern ontario and high as well in southern ontario. Wind shear also seems much stronger towards eastern ontario, which leads me to believe that there will be an enhanced tornado threat in this outbreak as well as the last one unfortunately. I think Southern Ontario will have much less of a risk.

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LI index at 21 hours looks really juicy in Southern Ontario for much of the day tuesday and then peaks for eastern ontario later in the day. Values lower then -10 are showing up over a large area.

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Dewpoints Tueday at 21 hours get well above 70 F over a large area which is where we would like to be in order to develop strong and severe storms.

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CIN showing less resistance to the CAPES, especially when daytime heating gets going and as the front passes through we will see low level convergence. We also have a lot of low level moisture which will help break the cap as well.

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Nice tongue of very high theta-e in our areas signalling that the low levels of the atmosphere are very unstable and will try to produce storms through convection. THe cap should not have a problem breaking especially as the front moves in. With the front moving into the hottest and most humid air mass of the year I have trouble thinking that this will not get extremely severe if not the most severe outbreak so far this year for a large area.Until later tonight looks like we can enjoy the beautiful sunny weather as the atmosphere stays fairly stable, but watch out tonight into tomorrow! As you can see all the parameters are their before the action moves through (from 20 to 27 hours) to get something to really fire up. The bulk of the activity won't pass through till later then 24 hours.

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This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Today, 08:42 AM