Thursday, 10 October 2013

Major Pattern Change in 10-15 day period

ECWMF 500mb forecast for hour 240 shows the 180 degree turn around for much of the northern plains and upper great lakes. This should translate eastwards in the 10-15 day forecast period.

Long range guidance is beginning to look really interesting. Euro ensembles in the 11-15 day period have a strong trough over the east with a -EPO/-NAO couplet. This should help expand snow cover across north america with the potential for the coldest air mass of the season for much of the Gl's/NE. A recurving typhoon around october 16th correlates well with the troughiness the euro has been showing from the 21th-25th. The GFS, euro and JTWC are in good agreement with a recurvature track.
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Would be nice to access GWO graphics, but the Gvt shutdown is blocking the data. In terms of stratospheric anomalies, warming is focusing towards the bering sea and great lakes region by day 9, with a wave 1 pattern dominant on the euro/GFS. This should help deliver the chill into the east. The PV still remains centred towards northern russia with the heaviest snowpack across siberia as well. Hopefully we can see this setup pattern turn around by november.
GFS 70mb 216 hour forecast
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