Saturday, 19 October 2013

Tracking Strong Coastal Storm

The GFS and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement right now with the overall setup of this storm. The euro has a weak coastal low developing of the NJ coast before major intensification occurs once it reaches the gulf of maine/Atlantic canada.

 Right now the euro ensemble spread has a weaker surface low, with a more neutrally titled trough/ weak frontal wave developing. The devil will likely be in the details, which the OP euro would likely pick up on first.

Euro ENS has little spread in the guidance:
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To get a stronger storm for the interior northeast, we need to see the trough go negative a little bit earlier. The current NAO forecast argues for a spike towards neutral in this time frame which would help pump heights off the SE coast, and perhaps encourages a further west/stronger storm. It doesn't look like the I-95 corridor has a good shot at snow, although higher elevations in the interior could potentially see something. Given the more amplified nature to the pattern, I am keeping an eye on this although the euro ENS solution is probably best for now unless the euro OP trends the other way over the next few runs.
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