With a moderate risk out now from the SPC, the weather world is buzzing about the current severe weather outbreak on the way for the lower great lakes region. It has become apparent that a very significant outbreak of severe weather is on the way. Throughout the day today and into tonight, warm and moist air will be advected northwards through the ohio and tennessee valley's. Dew points are well into the 60's and even 70's across south texas based on current observed data. These readings will be transported well to the north due to strong forcing from the low level jet.
By tomorrow morning temps are expected to reach 70f in the chicago and lafayette area's with 60's extending east towards detroit and columbus. This should provide ample moisture to set off discrete cells especially if skies can clear out ahead of the front. Surface-500mb bulk shear is in access of 50kts as well, with significant speed and directional wind shear with height.
Note the very dynamic upper level jet streak that is going to be penetrating this warm sector. SRH values will likely be above 350 near Chicago with EHI values >3 ripping right through the chicago metro area. The cells along the cold front will most likely stay discrete as they move through the Chicago area before organizing into a squall line setup over Michican, Ohio and S ON.
This means that we see an elevated tornado threat across IL,IN, and KY before it transitions to mostly a damaging wind threat over OH/ MI and ON. The tornado threat will still translate east as meso-vortices can form along the front and jet dynamics remains very favourable for rotating thunderstorms. Peak Gusts to 115km/hr are possible along the intensifying front, as the surface low deepens below 980mb.
Stay safe out their this sunday! Will continue to update blog when needed.