The coldest November since '02 may be on the table!

Latest runs of the GFS ensembles are showing a persistent west based -NAO block to start off november with a monster trough hanging around in the east.

This is the average departure from all novembers since 2000. Novembers have been very warm across much of north america in the last ten years.

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2002 was cold in the east and looked like this.

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I think we will see a colder then normal november with above normal lake effect snow. Heres my forecast i have had out since august. I think i may be a bit too cold across the northern plains and the core will be centred further east but my main ideas are still close. The southern ridge may be centred further west as well. Something else important to note is the low level cold air that can develop across ontario and quebec even in the case of a zonal flow/weak ridging across the east which will occur between cold shots.

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The KMA and JMA are on the same page and back up my thoughts:




Geomagnetic activity is heading downwards meaning the first week and a half of november may average below normal for much of the northeast.

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And the euro wants to keep the NAO negative for the end of the month and into the first part of november.

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