Thursday, 11 October 2012

GFS trends stronger on eastern trough, EPO supports this

This upcoming week temperatures will average near normal with pacific air masses moving into the east behind low pressure systems that will move in from the west. Arctic air will not get involved in the u.s pattern until next week. 18z GFS ensembles at hour 192 show the trough moving into the east.
We can see the change in the pattern by the trend to a negative EPO pattern by next week:
I think that we take a break from the cold this week before it comes back again for the last week and a half of october. I believe that the models will begin to trend towards an eastern trough around the 23rd or 24th of october as that would match up with the typhoon recurvature. The indicies are starting to line up well in the long range with a -NAO, +PNA and -EPO indicated on the GFS. The european weeklies support this as well. With the active pattern coming up backed by the MJO and the LRC cycle in the observation period and may be beginning its new cycle. This would argue for an active january. A stretch of just a few very active weeks can change the entire impression of the winter. When we get powerful low pressure systems moving North into cold arctic air masses it spells trouble in January.

No comments:

Post a Comment