Tuesday, 9 October 2012

European agree's with a typhoon recurvature

Yesterday I mentioned how the european model was tracking a strong typhoon west into china. On the most recent run of the ecmwf we can see a recurvature similar to what the GFS is showing. You can see the typhoon beginning to take a turn to the east of Japan at hour 216.
From this we can infer that a trough will move into the east between the 20th and 25th of october. Despite all of this the 06z GFS keeps the trough in the west and more ridging in the east.

 Something doesn't look right here  especially considering that the long term AO/NAO are going negative. I think blocking is going to develop like the GFS shows but the trough will progress further east into the great lakes, northeast and the ridge in Western Alaska will be centred further east in the GOA.

The european weeklies show this cool down across the east during this time period. This may set the stage for what I believe will be a colder then normal start to november.

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