Once in a lifetime Storm Will Hit the Northeast this Weekend!

Some main points on the storm:

1. In my opinion sandy will stay as a warm core system up until landfall but a dryslot may develop in the SE quadrant of the storm as the cold core trough goes negatively titled.

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2. After landfall sandy will merge with a giant cold core trough over the south east. 

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3.The phasing of the polar jet stream will cause historic pressure falls and what i think could be a sub 940mb storm at landfall as it continues to strengthen over the gulf steam water. It will get stronger then it was last night between saturday and monday in my opinion as it moves north with a landfall off of coastal NJ or MD.

4. Historic flooding and power outages may occur and a potential disaster scenerio for philadelphia as water piles up in the delaware bay with a SE wind which would flood the delaware river contributing to major flooding across the area. The wave watch model illustrates this point well and locations all along the eastern seaboard should take safety measures.

5. Major flooding and wind damage will take place from this system both along the coast and inland. Here in ontario heavy rain, wind and possibly some snow may occur depending on how much cold air gets pulled in on the back side of the trough. The track of the storm will also matter with a solution north landfalling in NJ or a solution similar to the 18z GFS may mean more cold air on the back side and less warmth being pulled northwards in front of sandy. Also if the storm does not move inland too far then more cold air could move in. Nonetheless people in southern ontario and quebec should be keeping an eye on the evolution of this storm. Current model runs are showing significant wind and rain for southern ontario. Are these amounts overdone? Unknown at the moment but if these conditions do develop and the models stay consistent with what they are depicting then a Hazel like scenerio may be setting up for inland areas with extensive damage possible. This is a possible scenerio but should not be overlooked and it should be understood that we do not have a good grasp yet on the exact impacts of this system. I still think that a high impact storm is coming for inland areas but we will have to see to what extend these occur. Is this just a minimal TS for canada or something that can really make an impact and be remembered for a long time and truly feeling historic?

Track spread:

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European has 932 off the NC coast weakening and becoming cold core inland but retains strength and high winds are being felt on the back side.

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GFDL sub 930 with devastating scenerio for NYC:

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18z GFS has 930 MB storm and as it moves into NJ has 70+ kts 900mb winds across southern ontario. thats very impressive!

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Memorable October Storm shows signs of Hazel!

As a potential analog, Hazel rings a bell with this upcoming storm. Ocurring in october and moving inland towards the eastern great lakes Hazel strengthened over lake ontario bringing very strong winds to the city of toronto contrary to expectations or anything ever seen before in a city that isn't effected by hurricanes very often. Many models are showing a tropical system moving inland which would effect much of central and eastern ontario as well as quebec and the maritimes. This is something that can happen and has happened before as history is shown to repeat itself. It is still much to soon to say anything is written in stone and this is just a possibility right now but it would be very cool to experience a tropical like system here in toronto. I have never experienced one before.

October 15th 1954 you can see the system phasing with the trough moving SE:

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October 16th shows the system backing NW into ontario and intensifying:

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Moves out on october 17th leaving flurries in much of the appalachians:

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More detail on storms effect on canada:

QUOTE

On October 15, 1954, the most famous hurricane in Canadian history struck Southern Ontario. Hurricane Hazel was projected to dissipate, but instead re-intensified unexpectedly and rapidly, pounding the Toronto region with winds that reached 110 kilometres per hour (68 mph) and 285 millimetres (11.23 inches) of rain in 48 hours. Bridges and streets were washed out, homes and trailers were washed into Lake Ontario. Thousands were left homeless, and 81 people were killed—more than 30 on one street alone. The total cost of the destruction in Canada was estimated at $100 million (about $1 billion today).

Some modelling from our current storm:

GFS at hour 240 shows a 959mb system off the jersey coast and precipitation extending back into ontario.

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GEM does not phase systems but will bring tropical system NW around trough and bring precip back to ohio and ontario. Snows would break out in the appalachians, ohio, michigan and parts of ontario on the back side if this interpretation is to be believed. Remember that this was the first model to really see this scenario.

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EC phases system with snow on the back side further west toward michigan with 12+ inch amounts and potential disaster along the east coast with 40-50kts winds. Eventually enough cold air moves down to produce snow flurries across the great lakes and ontario. A historical event is shown on this model!

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This event is still just under a week away and a lot can happen but a potential memorable event is on the table for the eastern two thirds on the nation. With the upper trough developing a negative tilt this is no doubt a damaging storm.

Monster Shot of Cold Supported by indicies

 0z GFS ensembles very bullish on a strong eastern trough and a persistent east based - nao block that will stick around and cause this trough to dig deeper and stay in place for a while. This GFS run is indicating departures of MORE THAN 18C BELOW NORMAL IN AN 8 DAY PERIOD! This area will form across much of interior B.C, parts of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba before moving southeastwards for the end of october and beginning of november. Something important to note is we may be seeing daily departures of over 10 degrees below normal for several days in area away from the great lakes but this extreme cold will not last as long as it did in the pacific northwest. We will see an initial shot in the east and then it may stick around for a while with blocking over the top before recharging.

The indicies support this and have moved to a -NAO,-AO,-EPO,+PNA look for the end of october and beginning of november period.

The coldest November since '02 may be on the table!

Latest runs of the GFS ensembles are showing a persistent west based -NAO block to start off november with a monster trough hanging around in the east.

This is the average departure from all novembers since 2000. Novembers have been very warm across much of north america in the last ten years.

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2002 was cold in the east and looked like this.

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I think we will see a colder then normal november with above normal lake effect snow. Heres my forecast i have had out since august. I think i may be a bit too cold across the northern plains and the core will be centred further east but my main ideas are still close. The southern ridge may be centred further west as well. Something else important to note is the low level cold air that can develop across ontario and quebec even in the case of a zonal flow/weak ridging across the east which will occur between cold shots.

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The KMA and JMA are on the same page and back up my thoughts:




Geomagnetic activity is heading downwards meaning the first week and a half of november may average below normal for much of the northeast.

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And the euro wants to keep the NAO negative for the end of the month and into the first part of november.

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Beware of November/December cold but does it continue into Jan and Feb?

We are seeing a lot of variablility from the modelling in terms of what we can expect this winter. A few things to take note of on the current SST pattern is the very warm water off the east coast of north america and near greenland. 

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This will promote lower pressures off the east coast causing cold sinking air from northeastern canada to move southwards to take the place of the warm rising air to the east. This will cause a thermal gradient to set up between cold air building across canada and warm water in the atlantic. A clash of air masses will cause more storminess to develop in the east with a trough favoured along the east coast. Ridging will be centred further north and east across greenland. Notice the cooling of SST's that has taken place near iceland which supports the blocking idea and promotes troughiness across the region.

On the pacific side we see many signals supporting a cold winter. The core of coldest anomalies have shifted towards the bering sea and warmer temperature anomalies are showing up northeast of hawaii. Here are september's anomalies to compare to.

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This promotes a trough in the bering sea, a negative EPO pattern, a ridge off the west coast as thicknesses will average higher in this area with lower thicknesses further northwest. This will cause an ULL feature to develop across the bering sea and this will be very key when it comes to cold developing in the east. A ridge in the west favours a +PNA pattern and phasing across the ohio valley and eastern and central great lakes as opposed to areas further east(when ridge is centred in the rockies). This is good news for snow lovers across southern ontario and quebec and based on current storm track trends this month( the LRC pattern setting up for this january) and favourable SST's I think the storm track may be centred further west then most are expecting for this winter. The major warming of the SST's of the west coast is good news for winter weather lovers. The worst case scenerio that may develop is the cooling of the atlantic SST's and west coast SST's favoring a western trough and this situation should continue to be monitored. We have seen some cooling of the extreme warmth in the atlantic but that is to be expected at this time of year. The warming of the anomalies off the west coast is enough to counter the atlantic effects. 

Another thing that must be kept in mind is the cooling of the east pacific SST's but keep in mind that the nino 4 SST's are still above normal. West based el ninos produce a much colder weather pattern then an east based el nino. Many people are stressing over the fact that the el nino may be under performing but what must be kept in mind is the fact that the ENSO regions have warmed considerably since last winter and it is the change in the SST pattern that will cause the response to cold in north america this winter as long as the coldest anomalies stay centred west. Also to take note of is the warm pool located beneath the surface near the date line. Current cross section shows this.


Some other years with very similar trends are 2009,2003,2002 and 2004. Here is the combined analog package for winter.

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We need to keep an eye on the MJO wave to see if this water can move up to the surface and possibly regenerate the el nino (a strong wave would favour warming in the ENSO regions). Current MJO wave is headed for strong phases 1 and 2 and this is backed but the strengthening easterlies which would help to bring the warm water to the surface.

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Look how the wind has changed to much more easterly.

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So as we can see the current SST pattern are very favourable for cold in the east and if it were to hold would set up as a top 5 winter. This is why i think this november is going to be cold with an early start to the lake effect season. We have seen the evidence of what this SST setup can bring with the major cold shots in august,september and the beginning of october. November looks to start of cold with a trough in the east and a persistent west based block. I believe that another strong cold shot like we haven't seen yet this fall is coming down during november much like the october outbreak but one month later with more strength. I think you will see that the GFS and Euro ensembles will want to hold onto the cold for longer because of this but right now ensemble member uncertainty is causing a weaker trough to show up on the modelling especially because it is far into the long range. With our current SST's I believe a very cold november and december are coming up and we will get a ridge developing along the west coast (watch out for big snowstorms along the st lawrence and into ontario) as gulf moisture is picked up and pushed northwards. The problem might be what this pattern does to our SST's in the second half of winter that could change the amazing pattern right now. This needs to be watched very carefully. Here is the cpc sst analog model which bases it predictions on current SST's.

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Years with a september AMO within 0.5 of this years and an above normal tropical end game in the atlantic basin(similar to this year).

December starts cold but it shows how a favourable pattern can come back to bite you.


JAN:


FEB:


DJF: