Kelvin Wave and Stratosphere Analysis

The SOI crash reflects the effects of a kelvin wave moving eastwards in the tropical pacific. This will help to move warmer water into nino 3 and 4 which proceeds eastern cold. This will cause two major changes in the synoptic weather pattern across North America. 1) This will promote convection to fire up along the date line which will cause more trough's to form to the south of the aleutian islands promoting an eastern trough and will hopefully be able to cause more variance in the PNA. 2) As a result of this kelvin wave air is forced to rise through the atmosphere and with lower then normal pressures over the equatorial pacific already this will be enhanced. This movement of air will help to promote an easterly wind in the stratosphere as well as anticyclonic flow which will help to disrupt the polar vortex. The polar vortex is already weakening with the 100mb vortex displaced when compared to the 10mb vortex. This strong kelvin wave combined with the already existent -QBO argues for further weakening of the pre-displaced PV which may cause it to collapse entirely leading to a SSW event. If this does occur, which i suspect it will between now and the end of january a colder heart of winter is a possibility.

Daily SOI values have dropped off considerably which should help revive the el nino, particularly in western regions.

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Notice the already displaced polar vortex:

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Stratospheric anomalies warming and I expect another warm surge which is forecasted to extend into north america promoting more troughiness:

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We all know what these warm anomalies are causing across china and russia, extreme cold! With these anomalies shifting eastwards towards north america, the cold is coming in a significant way as early as next weekend. So if you are doubting this winter, you may want to reconsider because a lot of cold and storminess is coming up for the great lakes,prairies and st lawrence river valley. The storminess comes first leading up until christmas and then i think the cold will establish itself in the east later in the month and into january. Until then in and out cold with very stormy conditions will be the major story across the eastern part of the continent.