Monday, 3 December 2012

Storm Potential Nov 9-11

There are a few points that i want to make about the upcoming storm around the 11th. 
1) Keep in mind that the euro has been doing better then the GFS lately but it has been flip flopping a lot from west to east in the last few runs with this potential storm
2) GFS appears to be having trouble bundling the energy associated with the southern branch energy as well as energy moving in from the NW associated with the trough. It had the idea of a secondary wave but has now went to a stronger, phased storm with one wave

With this being said i do believe a considerable amount of cold air will be available for this storm to work with and locations on the NW side of the low will get pounded with snow. I also believe that this storm will be strong with pressure in the 980's indicated on the three major models (ecm,gfs and cmc). This may be slightly overdone but this storm should be strong. Track of the storm is the largest uncertainty at the moment in my mind but i believe that the euro will shift east some to come more in line with the GFS but probably not that far east. I will continue to update you as the event gets closer and should have a better idea by tomorrow night hopefully. 
Heres the latest run of the 18z GFS:
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Total snowfall:

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