Monday, 3 December 2012

Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event Beginning To Materialize

Current observations are showing a rapid warming of the stratosphere at 70,50 and 30mb which means that the sustained arctic cold will come earlier then expected. We will have to watch this situation continue to evolve but it looks like some cold outbreaks will set up in mid december but nothing sustained and brutal. This stratospheric temperature evolution will help to suppress and cool the troposphere rapidly as the stratosphere warms but there is a ten day lag between a sudden stratospheric warming event and the cold felt at the surface. When this does occur temperatures can be frigid with a crash of the AO. Right now anomalies are slightly above normal but if temps continue to soar like they are now then a SSW event may occur allowing that cold air to charge south at the end of dec/beginning of jan period. If this happens it is a very good sign for a cold january. 

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