Long Range Cold Lurking

Analogs are indicating a cold pattern trying to erase the warm anomalies across the east from first week of december. Central u.s averages out above normal due to the extreme positive departures they are currently experiencing.

January will turn out very cold from alaska through the northern plains and great lakes into the east. I believe the teleconnections are moving that way and the stratosphere is beginning to warm at a rapid pace which will force the cold to come down in january. The Pacific SST's are very supportive of this pattern change with convection already firing along the date line which did not occur last winter. Arctic hounds should release in january.


Stratospheric warmth shifting east means bering sea ridge moves west into northeast asia, more troughiness returns to the aleutians as well as japan and a ridge pumps up south of alaska.

Current anomalies:

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Notice the shift east of the warmest anomalies which will drive the trough south of the aleutians where the convection is setting up along the dateline. This breakdown of the omega ridge will allow for a much more favourable pattern across eastern NA:

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Convection firing up south of the same area:

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Notice the switch from current 500mb pattern to 8-10 day pattern and trough developing NW of hawaii. I believe the euro is handling the pattern best.
Current strong bering sea ridge and trough in gulf of alaska with warm and progressive north american pattern:

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Major shift to colder in 8-10 day forecast period and just the beginning of the cold pattern with 70mb temperatures looking the way they are!

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