Friday, 21 December 2012

Tropical Forcing Supports Eastern trough, Storminess

Strong convection is developing around the date line which supports 3 major changes in the synoptic weather pattern. 1) It supports a strong trough over the aleutian islands and a storm track which is supports by the 6-10 day means on both the ECMWF and GFS
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2) A further east storm track causing more apps runners/ miller b storm tracks as opposed to GLC in the 6-10 and day period. This type of track is likely to pan out with the 26-20th storm threat with two LP centres. In the 11-15 day period more miller a/ miller b storm are likely.

3) A stronger, more robust sub-tropical jet stream will cause stronger southern branch features and thus the development of larger storms further east with more opportunities for downstream phasing to take place.

Take note of the Convection developing around the date line which is strengthening the STJ that extends eastwards to mexico.
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OLR anomalies negative east to the mexican coast:
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This flare up of convection is being enhanced by the warm water E and NE of new guinea:
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