Monday, 18 June 2012

Revised Summer Outlook for the U.S

The area that I forecasted below normal for the summer looks pretty good so far with michigan above normal and the ohio valley all the away south and east to florida below normal as well as PA and the mid atlantic. Going foreword i believe that the southeast will stay below normal and the great lakes and mid atlantic will as well. Michigan may end up warmer then previously thought but its a wild card definitely! Will enough trough's position themselves west enough and frequently enough to effect that region. The northern pains should stay above normal with the tendency of the ridge to shift westwards instead of eastwards which will give much needed improvement to the cold west right now. The core of the warm will set up in the rockies like it is right now with wild fire danger. West texas is much warmer then east texas which is vulnerable to gulf moisture and tropical storms/hurricanes. An east coast hit will contribute to the cool ideas i have along the eats coast. to sum it up august is cooler then july in the lakes. July will probably end up near normal there but august below leading to the -1 to -2 departure I put up.

Revised forecast:
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This is what I believe the mean pattern is going to look like for july with that trough showing up in the east as the SOI's start falling.
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The july cooling will really start occurring after a 7-10 day heat wave I believe is coming after the 4th of july. July will average close to normal in the east with an area of slightly above normal in the great lakes and an area of below normal in the southeast/mid atlantic. August i believe will be the coldest month as the SOI values continue to cars and the el nino takes hold. Mean trough will be positioned in the east with cooler then normal and wetter conditions in the great lakes and northeast. Warm core backs into the central part of the country and getting into the west at times. This is what the mean 500mb pattern should look like for august.

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