Thursday, 21 June 2012

400mb Theory For Next Winter

I have been doing some research with how 400mb temperature trends in november correlated with very warm and very cold winters. What I found was that very warm winters have novembers with very warm temperatures across the arctic and antarctic. Cold winters have very COLD temperatures across the arctic and warm antarctic temperatures at 400mb. This was a surprising setup considering the fact that a warm arctic and greenland usually translate to a colder north america in fall and winter but this was not the case and in fact the opposite. Lower heights across greenland and the arctic are what translate into cold winters. Fascinating! 

400mb heights in novembers proceeding very cold winters across the u.s:

 Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 437 ] - Click to view full image
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400mb heights in novembers proceeding very warm winters across the u.s:
 Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 437 ] - Click to view full image
Attached Image

This is what my preferred analogs looked like at 400mb in novembers proceeding there winters. For this analog set I chose weak to moderate el nino years following double or triple ninas that are east based with a spike in the PDO to positive. You will notice that the arctic temperatures are on the cold side and the antarctic on the warm side(meaning a good setup for a cold winter):
 Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 437 ] - Click to view full image
Attached Image

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