Wednesday, 13 June 2012

Update on the Tropics

There is a large potential of some tropical development in the Eastern Pacific from now until this Friday before it starts moving into the Southeastern Mexican coast and weakening as it makes landfall. You can see a cluster of thunderstorms beginning to organize over very warm water (29 C) in the Eastern Pacific.

Very low shear across this area is aiding in the development of low pressure in the region. I expect it to strengthen into a tropical storm before making landfall off the coast of mexico.

Heres the upper level feature at 48 hours about to make landfall.

Surface low and QPF
Most models are keeping this as a tropical storm although hurricane strength isn't out of the question as you can see.

The MJO is favourable in this area as well which would favour development.

Another feature may begin to develop in the Western Gulf and try to head up into Texas, Louisiana and the gulf states as some energy gets left behind from an upper level low off the south east coast. This piece of energy will join up with some thunderstorms and other pieces of energy coming out of the eastern Pacific.

500mb vorticity at 186 hours:

Surface low forms and it heads for Texas at 192 hours:
The GFS has very low shear values in the gulf as it spins up this storm which is probably why it has this storm idea.

SST's look very warm in this area as well.

You can see the strong ridge over the top allowing for more troughiness in the gulf and caribbean.

The GFS has been pretty consistent with this low that develops in the gulf but it has been flip flopping on the exact location of where it hits in the gulf (ex. east, central or west) but unfortunately we haven't seen much support from the Euro so I am not ready to jump the gun yet on this idea. It is showing consistent moisture and thunderstorms in this area but it isn't organizing anything just yet. We will see if its ideas change in the next little while. If I was in the western or central gulf states I would watch out next week around Thursday the 21st of june for something to develop.

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