Friday, 15 June 2012

More on the MJO ruling the pattern

The remainder of this week and then next week will be hot and dry. This will change front eh 25th to the 29th as a trough digs into the east and we experience cooler then normal temperatures. I believe that heat will return for the last bit of june as well after this trough. I believe there will be another cooldown before a big surge of heat in the middle of july. This heatwave will not be as big as last years because thats the pattern that we are in except it will probably get quite hot for some time (although probably not prolonged and probably 7-10 days) in the middle of july as the mjo goes back into the origin which is good for major heat in july. Currently the MJO is ruling the roost and controlling the pattern with little influence from the enso. After mid july another heat wave will be highly unlikely because of the pattern that we are in and the SOI will continue to plummet driving the pattern.

Heres the Euro monthly MJO:

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And composites bringing us warm then cold then heat wave:

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