Monday, 25 June 2012

False Prophets of the Season

This year has been a year with several "false prophets of the seasons". For example the march severe weather outbreak broke many records for earliest amount of tornadoes ETC and led everyone to believe that we would shave a huge severe weather season(because that would be the natural reaction that people have). A few months later we can see that tornadoes have clearly levelled off and this ended up a near average year for severe weather(nothing special about it) after high expectation from the early spike that you can see in march.

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The next false prophet was the early march "heat wave" which set off an extremely early spring and allowed plants and trees to start blooming before they are used too. Record heat gripped much of the eastern part of the country for weeks on end. After this everyone though spring was here to stay until several cold days along with hard freezes killed much of the apple and cherry crop in ontario as well as peaches in ohio and michigan. Many other flowers were damaged and plants destroyed. This was followed by an unusually cold end to the month with a late season snowstorm producing over 20cm of snow i the orangeville area. Toronto received some snow on april 27th as well.

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The third false prophet I believe will occur is the hurricane activity we are seeing in the atlantic which is having an unusually fast start due to the upcoming el nino which allows for frequent troughs to stay put in the gulf and carribean. Types of seasons where we see this have a lot of early seaosn in close development but no african wave train development. These season will have above normal activity but our season will fall below normal despite recent thoughts otherwise. It just wouldn't make sense of this season to be above normal. The african wave train is getting destroyed because of the cold water off the coast of africa. We also have the disrupted indian monsoon season due to the negative IOD in the north of australia which makes it harder for energy to move into and off the coast of africa. Also we are seeing a lot of dry air in this area which is eating at any energy trying to get by.

Taking a look at a few analog years for el nines after double ninas we can see the early season activity but less activity overall.
1957 had audrey on june 14th but notice much less then normal activity;
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2003 had very early season development but was normal overall.

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1951 is one of my best analogs with able (a major hurricane) effecting the bahamas and north carolina early on. These examples show how things that have happen before are sure to happen again. The 1950's share the most similarities to current time due to the negative PDO but positive AMO.
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The last false prophet will be the heat which has come early in june and up to mid july but will take a turn around as the el nino comes on which will try to usher in some cooler then normal air in to the great lakes area.

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