Thursday, 14 June 2012

What Happens if we see a La Nada winter

In most neutral winters it is the PDO that effects what the winter is like. If the PDO is warm then the winter is warmer then normal and if it is cold then its colder then normal overall. You can see all the neutral winters with a +PDO have a blowtorch in the east. The only reason northern new england/maine are cold is because of the lack of blocking. You want Maine to be warm to get the cold to come down into the east and midwest.
Attached Image

Cold PDO neutral winters are cold in the east so if in fact we end up with a neutral winter and the PDO stays cold(which would be favoured due to less warming in the tropical pacific) then we would get a cold and snowier winter in the east. This would occur even though these winters are drier then normal in much of the east because it would be so cold allowing most of the precipitation to fall as snow. This would be the opposite in warm PDO neutral winters where most of the precipitation will fall as a mix or rain favouring less snow.
Attached Image

Attached Image

The correlation is clearly based on the PDO phase! A -PDO would cause a neutral winter to have weak La Nina characteristics and a +PDO neutral winter would have weak El Nino characteristics. 

No comments:

Post a Comment