Storms will start firing up along and in front of the cold front. Pop up severe storms in front of the line will begin to effect our area and areas to the east of us first at around 7:00 PM. The main line will probably pass through at around 9:00 or 10:00. According to the last few runs of the HRRR (10z and 9z are showing this) a cell will move right into the toronto/hamilton area. At this point it is very hard to pinpoint the exact location of this cell but this is something we should watch out for. The last few runs have been more confident with this and are showing stronger storms affecting us! We should await the next few runs to see if this teen continues and the idea of this cell stays.
10z HRRR at hour 10:
859 x 844 (139.98K)
CAPE at hour 10 appears to show a huge spike along the lake towards 2500j/kg. The question is if this will actually occur or is just exaggerated by the model. If it does that would aid in the development of severe storms. The montreal area is surrounded by high CAPE values.
861 x 839 (227.32K)
VIL levels(hour 10) show the possibility of some small hail with these cells although i don't think this will be the main threat.
861 x 842 (100.73K)
Heavy downpours, very strong winds, frequent lightning and thunder will be the main threat with these cells. An isolated tornado cannot be rules out somewhere along the line but this will be unknown until the storms form. There is plenty of lift in the atmosphere shown by the LI at hour 10:
861 x 840 (211.27K)
Storm relative helicity is showing some rotation in some of the cells including the one i mentioned which has higher values within it if you look closely around the toronto area. Values are between 100 and 150(probably not big deal). Hour 9:
861 x 845 (165.18K)
I will be closely monitoring this to see if this line packs a punch or fizzles like we've seen many times before!