Looking at this again my best analogs are 2001,2006,1951,2009 and 1976. They look very close to my outlook from before with a slight shift of the cold core SE. Here is what my analogs look like:
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They seems to be showing an opposite signal from the modelling right now. They show cool west and warm east. I don't' know how much i can trust the IRI because they always have warm outlooks trying to back up there AGW agenda... IRI:
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CFSv2 is not showing a great signal so we will have to look at SST's also: Temps:
1100 x 850 (36.66K)
SST's: The central nino is a good sign at least which may be telling us that this fall is cooler then normal.
1100 x 850 (49.2K)
Paul's latest October-December outlook(remember its not totally the fall). He thinks the ridge position will shift eastwards from august to septemeber and then continue shifting form october to december allowing the trough to dig into the west. I am not in full agreement with his ideas but we will see. BTW, the Euro shows B.C really dry from october to december as well as the CFSV2 and the IRI so watch out stuffradio! I will have a revised fall outlook when i get back form vacation in about 7 weeks. I will be off the forums starting tomorrow afternoon.