Thursday, 22 November 2012

Lake Effect Snow Outbreak Thoughts

My latest thoughts on the LES bands setting up are that initially friday night we see bands setting up in a WNW to ESE fashion but as the winds shift to the NW the strongest and most long lasting bands will set up from NW to SE. I am thinking that off of lake huron initially Kincardine south to the goderich and blue water areas will pick up some light accumulations. As the winds shift the heaviest bands will set up from goderich to the london area. Lake-850mb delta T values will allow these bands to prosper with a 20C temperature inversion. With limited directional shear and warm lakes the only thing limiting this event is the relatively short duration of the bands. In terms of georgian bay to start off the event a setup from collingwood to georgina and newmarket is possible but snows will be lighter and shifting winds will limit the time that these bands stay in place. The heaviest and longest lasting bands off of georgian bay will come later on into the morning saturday and will set up from collingwood to barrie and even as far south as highway 9 west of newmarket. In general highest amounts will range from 5 up to 10cm of snow in areas such as barrie,collingwood,london and goderich with trace amounts in areas further away from the lakes. Some of these bands can strengthen enough to reach as far east as the GTA and bursts of snow can not be ruled out for areas north of the 401 although light accumulations are most likely. 

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