18z GFS at hour 312 and 324:
Looks like an interesting track in that it propagates northwards to the eastern lakes and picks up a lot of gulf moisture on the way. It will probably trend west with time as that is usually what happens as we get closer to the event but we will see another 20 different solutions before all is said and done.
200mb Charts at 312 show how the subtropical jet is feeding moisture into the system. On this run there is limited interaction with the polar jet but model guidance will obviously change many more times.