Friday, 9 November 2012

Late Tropical Season Development Possible for the East Coast

The european is showing a storm of tropical origin developing in close to the east coast in the long range. Currently a cold front is off the east coast and is forecast to move eastwards and leave some energy behind north of the bahamas. Here is the evolution of the current pattern across the atlantic basin.

 Keep your eye on the energy in the central atlantic and the cold front moving eastwards across the central u.s.
 Hour 168 cold front low level centre east of newfoundland. An area of low pressure is forming off the east coast of florida. This is caused by the energy left back in the atlantic beginning to drift westwards and interact with the trailing front.

A trough forms right under a blocking ridge across northeastern canada. This system will be forced back in towards the northeast coast. 
Keep in mind this isn't just a few runs of the ECM operational but there is also ensemble support for a trough developing east of florida.

 Hour 192 low pressure east of cape hatteras beginning to move northwards as a subtropical storm most likely.
 At hour 240 it is lashing the northeast with high winds and rain. This would be another very bad situation for areas destroyed by Sandy and it should be watched in the coming days. The ecmwf has been showing this possibility for a couple of runs now. The GFS has been back and forth but is showing nothing major yet. We are not seeing too much model support right now besides the ECM, but this model has been leading the way lately as the best model by far. It nailed down sandy's track as well as the nor'easter snow potential. This gives me good reason to at least monitor this situation's evolution.

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