Monday, 5 November 2012

Severe Weather For the Midwest Nov 10-11

Here are my current thoughts on the Storm. A shortwave trough will dig into the midwest bringing in arctic air behind it. In advance of the system a strong upper level ridge will be in place across the southeast and a strong SouthWest  flow will cause moisture to get drawn up from the Gulf of Mexico. A strong temperature gradient will set up along with a 60kts low level jet which will fuel the thunderstorms. CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg maximum does not favour strong thunderstorms. I think the air mass in front of the system is not unstable enough to produce a strong severe weather outbreak but the most intense cells will be felt across NE oklahoma, central missouri and, southeast colorado and SE Iowa and much of Northwest Illinois. One main squall line will form with heavy rain and gusty winds as the main concern. Keeping checking back for updates on what you can expect with this severe weather outbreak.

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