Wednesday, 21 November 2012

Update on Nov 27-29th Storm

Recent Model Trends give hope to the snow lovers in ontario, the northeast and quebec. Overnight model run summary:
The 06z GFS has a more robust system with enough cold air holding on the north side for snow from windsor to quebec city. Eventually the system really bombs out and becomes a 976mb low when it is effecting the province of quebec mostly. Timing of the strengthening will be important with this system but models have trended stronger with more precipitation and further west. The 0z GFS had a storm a bit further west giving areas NW of Toronto the big snow amounts, including ottawa west. The 0z ECMWF is in agreement with its ensembles on a similar solution to the 0z GFS but weaker. In my opinion there may be a shift to stronger and colder on the north side in the coming days but nothing major as models will converge somewhere in the middle but i am siding with the GFS in terms of precipitation shield and a stronger system(although not as strong as currently shown). I expect a track somewhere east of lake ontario and west of vermont. Otherwise the models are currently in pretty good agreement with a potential winter storm for the eastern great lakes region, west-interior northeast including quebec, ontario and parts of the maritimes.

No comments:

Post a Comment