Thursday, 1 November 2012

Major Storm For The Northeast Next Week

Numerous model runs have been indicating a major storm in the longer range next week between the 7th and 9th of november. I will show you guys some key corrections I think we will see going forwards on the GFS model. I point these out in the next paragraph which together will create a much more phased solution of the storm further west similar to what the euro is showing.

I think the GFS is having some feedback problems and is trying to move the energy too far east to quickly. I am siding with the european's less progressive solution and stronger ridge out in front of the low across the maritimes/ eastern canada. With a broad ridge in the west and a PNA transitioning to positive we will see the northern stream energy stronger and further south interacting with the southern branch vort max earlier on like the euro shows and capturing the southern feature earlier then the GFS. The southern branch feature will be slower, further west and a bit stronger then the GFS is showing. It will ride along the baroclinic boundary and up the east coast if not slightly inland. This will create a very strong ridge extending from eastern newfoundland NW into the davis straits and a west based -NAO with a trough across greenland.

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I numbered the key features to make it more clear.
1. I think this ridge will be stronger and extend further northwest into the davis straits
2. I like the position of this ridge although a setup a tad further east and a bit stronger makes sense
3. I see this trough setting up stronger, broader and further east across southern greenland.
4. The northern branch energy will be stronger, dig further south and phase quicker with the southern branch energy which will get held back. A less progressive flow will dominate with a negatively tilted trough and the diffluence zone setting up further NW with more energy moving over the western ridge and into the trough over the east. My current thoughts are as follows but are subject to change as we get closer to the time period. I see interior snows with this, extending from eastern ontario through western quebec and into upstate ny, a further west solution is favoured In my opinion and interior northern new england snows possible. If you have any questions about what to expect in your area, i will be happy to answer them in my comment question or you can tweet me to @blizzardof96 on twitter.

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