Tuesday, 20 November 2012

A Test For My Sunspot Theory

Notice the PNA moving towards its positive peak in the next week. Meanwhile the sunspot activity is beginning to move towards the minimum. Their is a couple day lag between the sun spots and the response in the PNA but the negative correlation is definitely there. Going on in time in about 10 days we will hit the sunspot minimum and the PNA will begin to descend and move more negative for week one of december. For week 2 and 3 of december the PNA should rebound back to positive promoting an eastern trough and colder then normal anomalies. This is in line with the negative EPO caused by the el nino spike and increased convection around the dateline. Also, we are seeing more blocking return to the pattern which may fade away slightly for week one of december before rebounding again leading to another major shot of cold air for week 2. Week one of december will be near to slightly below normal for the east with most of the energy diving into the west but some blocking will lead to a weak trough in the east.

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