Saturday, 3 November 2012

Short and Long Range Outlook, Thoughts on the Storm

More light lake effect bands will pick up again this evening and tonight as cold air advection gets going and a NW flow of air is established over the great lakes. A shift to more NNW winds will take place overnight before eventually transitioning to Northerly winds. This may cause widespread flurries close to georgian bay and lake huron but will disrupt any bands from lasting too long.
Surface Winds:
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Precipitable Water proves that the cold air is charging southwards and some bands will form. Where these set up is still uncertain. The best chance for a few flakes in the GTA/Hamilton will be this evening as the winds will stay mostly out of the NW direction. As the upper low near gaspe begins to move eastwards the wind will transition to more northerly.
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After a chilly weekend another cold high builds down for tuesday night bringing the coldest night yet and a possible freeze across ontario, quebec and the northeast.
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In the medium most of the modelling agrees on a coastal low with a phase 2 of the MJO, a positive PNA and negative NAO. We are in a very favourable pattern for northeasters moving up along the coast. Track and intensity is still uncertain but it looks like a low will move northeastwards up the coast and intensify over the warm gulf stream producing 55kts winds in the areas effected worst by sandy. 3-8" of snow will fall on the back side of the storm across the interior northeast, southeastern quebec and maine. The models are underestimating the cold air that can get pulled in by the storm. The minimum central pressure will range from 985mb(GFS/EC, most likely solution) to 965mb which the GGEM is showing.


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In the long range much more tranquil weather will move into the east as this extreme pattern breaks down. A SW flow and a surge of heat will move out of the plains into the east. An upper level ridge will take control of the east and a -PNA will allow more energy to dive down into the west between the 10th and 14th. 


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As the wavelengths shorten and more features move along in the flow another shortwave trough will move eastwards providing a cold and snowy pattern for the east between the 14th and 19th. More trough's will move into the east for the second half of the month and major cold will reload in the snow covered west.
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GFS ensembles hold onto the ridge for longer but moves the cold trough southeastwards nonetheless:
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I hope everyone has a good weekend! I wish anyone effected by Sandy good health and a quick recovery, good wishes are sent from Canada.1024 x 768 (336.72K)

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